Research

comScore State of the US Online Retail Economy Takeaways

Neil A. Doshi and San Q. Phan
November 24, 2015

MIZUHO SECURITIES USA INC.  |  US EQUITY RESEARCH

Key Takeaways from the Webinar

Summary

We joined the comScore State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q3 2015 webinar today to hear about key e-commerce trends that will drive the upcoming holiday season. Below are our key takeaways.

Key Points

Strong E-Commerce Growth Trends Heading Into Holiday 2015. U.S. e- commerce sales posted 15% YoY growth in 3Q15, flat from 2Q15 on a 1- point harder comp. Desktop e-commerce slowed to 8% for the quarter, but m- commerce accelerated to make up the difference. Looking ahead, comScore, expects YoY growth of 13-15% for the Nov-Dec holiday period, aided by low gas prices and an extra shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

Mobile Growth Accelerating. M-commerce sales on mobile devices grew 70% YoY in 3Q15 and represented 16% of total sales versus 11% a year ago. comScore expects mobile sales to surpass $10 billion this holiday period and represent 17% of total e-commerce sales.

AMZN To Benefit; Reiterate Buy. The key take-away for our coverage universe is that we believe Amazon will be the primary beneficiary from current e-commerce trends and the strong momentum heading into the holiday season. The mobile monetization gap persists due to friction in the mobile buying process - consumers spend 61% of retail time on mobile devices, but only 16% of e-commerce dollars are generated on mobile platforms. Not being able to see product details is one of the most cited issues to mobile shopping and most consumers prefer to have a few retail apps on their phone. Additionally, more than half of online shoppers now believe free shipping is the most important factor for online shopping. With the most convenient retail app in the market, coupled with increasing mobile screen sizes and free delivery for Prime members, we believe the category leader is poised to reap the most gains in m-commerce growth. We believe the company's Prime Day earlier this summer helped drive Prime subscriptions and got another supporting datapoint - according to comScore, Amazon Prime enrollments peaked on July 14, one day before Prime Day, with 14x the daily average prior to the company's announcement of Prime Day.

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