Markets are in a state of flux. From tariff threats to AI announcements to stock market swings, the current economic environment is defined by uncertainty and volatility. These topics have dominated headlines, absorbing the attention of companies and investors alike.
Amid this noise, a more durable trend – with arguably greater long-term implications – is taking shape. By 2030, Americans aged 75 and older will make up 10% of the population, up from 7.5% today. When Americans over age 65 are added in, this number rises to a whopping 21%.
This shift will have profound implications for the US economy. For starters, spending among Americans over 75 is set to surge, with consumption projected to grow by more than 80% – a $700 billion increase by 2030, and over $1.3 trillion by 2035.
Older consumers also spend differently than the average household. They allocate more of their income toward healthcare, renting, and home repairs, and spend less on categories like food, gas, and vehicle expenses. While certain sectors such as housing and healthcare will benefit, others, such as automotive and traditional retail, may face headwinds.
However, these shifts won’t simply affect what sectors grow, but how they operate. With an aging population leading to a shrinking workforce, rising wage pressure, and challenges in sustaining service levels, businesses will be forced to turn to automation and robotics to maintain productivity and meet the demands of a changing economy.
The Silver Economy’s Big Winners
Which sectors stand to gain from an aging society? While there are many beneficiaries, it’s no secret that older populations drive higher healthcare costs. As we approach 2030, the healthcare industry should see substantial gains across key areas, ranging from insurance to hospitals to specialty pharmacy.
Take medical technology (MedTech) for example. With conditions like glaucoma, aortic stenosis, and knee degeneration disproportionately affecting older adults, the demand for corrective devices is set to soar. Our analysis shows the total addressable market for glaucoma stents, transcatheter aortic valve replacements, and knee implants could grow from $1.8 billion in 2025 to $8.3 billion by 2035.
Medicare Advantage (MA) – a private plan alternative to traditional Medicare – also stands to gain. The program has already become a key product for insurers, offering benefits like food stipends and transport to clinics, while providing stability around out-of-pocket costs. This area will only grow as seniors seek predictable, bundled healthcare services.
While housing is traditionally thought of as a clear winner in the “silver tsunami,” results in this sector may be mixed. For example, as seniors get older, they often look to sell, downsize, and/or move to more comfortable accommodations – a process that could lead to an oversupply of homes without immediate buyers.
However, this will create a growing need for rentals and retirement communities, including independent and assisted living centers. While these properties are currently only 88% occupied, they have the potential to jump to 92% occupancy due to lower senior homeownership and a declining number of caregivers in the US. For landlords, increased pricing is likely to accelerate and support strong cash flow growth.
Less Workers, Greater Automation
Aging won’t just reshape demand – it will create economic and societal pressures that challenge companies and governments to find creative solutions. For example, as Baby Boomers – the generation of Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – retire, the U.S. workforce will shrink, leading to reduced tax revenue and potentially slower economic growth.
This trend, which picked up steam throughout the Teens, only accelerated after COVID. During the early days of pandemic, the U.S. lost about 1.4 million manufacturing jobs, as weakening demand incentivized many older workers to retire early. By 2030, projections show a shortfall of 2.1 million skilled labor jobs, a majority of which would have been filled by older, experienced workers.
This is where automation and AI can step in to close the gap. In the near-term, firms are leveraging smaller, targeted automation deployments rather than complete facility overhauls. This phase has also seen companies select individual manufacturing lines or cells for automation on an ad hoc basis, gradually implementing these solutions across their facilities.
Going forward, advancements in sensors and controls can allow these isolated automation islands to become interconnected, creating fully integrated smart factories. Advancements in AI and machine learning (ML) are also bringing humanoid robots with enhanced capabilities – including advanced image processing, increasing dexterity and agility, and AI inference – closer to commercial reality.
Currently, robotics adoption across industries remains relatively limited, primarily due to cost constraints that make these technologies accessible to large corporations with substantial capital expenditure budgets. However, use of humanoids is projected to grow rapidly, with estimates suggesting around 182,000 annual global shipments by 2030.
The Next Wave of Inheritance
Beyond labor and spending, the aging shift is setting up a massive financial transition. Seniors currently hold 40% of U.S. equities and a significant share of residential real estate. With nearly $100 trillion of this wealth set to be transferred from Baby Boomers to their heirs by 2048, it remains uncertain whether inheritors will maintain similar investment preferences.
Will we see a significant shift in capital from certain sectors to others? Will younger generations demonstrate less risk aversion than their parents and grandparents? Or will capital flow into different alternative and emerging assets, like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
Oen area to watch is home repair and maintenance. With approximately 53% of U.S. homes over 40+ years old, heirs who receive these properties may choose to renovate rather than sell, giving the sector a significant boost.
For corporate leaders in affected sectors, the imperative is clear: they must ask whether their products and services are appropriately positioned, formulated, and priced for an aging consumer base. First-mover advantages may still exist for those that act decisively.
For investors, this demographic shift represents an often-overlooked growth driver that could significantly impact revenue and margins across multiple sectors. As aging drives shifts in consumption and labor, investors can target sectors positioned to capture outsized demand – like elder care, labor reducing technologies, healthcare, and housing. Those who can look past short-term market noise to focus on this enduring demographic trend stand to reap substantial benefits in the decades to come.