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Mizuho EMEA G4 Rates & FX Monthly Forecast

Sharing with you our 2025 G4 Outlook:

US growth outperformance vs Europe accelerates. Tariffs exacerbates the problem. Labour market slowdown the risk vs business activity holding up.
European growth struggling from a slow easing cycle, China liquidity trap and a lack of fiscal easing. Service inflation in Europe to slow faster than expected but goods inflation a key risk to all with rising natural gas prices.
Strong Service growth in Japan keeps it’s cycle de-correlated from peers. BOJ to hike rates slowly but with political risks ahead (US tariffs, Japan election risks).
UK data to deteriorate in early Q1 after the budget impact on employment becomes clearer. BOE to become more forward looking less Service CPI driven.

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