A choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?

Does it have to be a choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?

9 December 2019

That’s the question individuals on both sides of the political divide are asking. Both traditional Conservative and Labour voters, as well as those in the middle, find themselves caught in this dilemma.

But I think this election could generate some surprises, with some unique elements that may impact the final results in a way not currently being picked up by the polls:

  1. A record number/proportion of younger voters have registered to vote. These voters tend to support the Remain camp and are registered because they want to take back control of their future;
  2. The December month is not a particularly easy month for older people to get themselves to polling stations. This sector of the population are more generally inclined to vote for Brexiters. Adverse weather may prevent many of them from doing this; and
  3. Previous elections held this year (European Parliamentary Elections, Peterborough by-election and Brecon and Radnorshire by-election) all indicated that Remain voters were keener to actually cast their votes than the Brexiters.


All of this could lead to Labour’s total seats sinking below 200 from its current 243. In which case, it is very possible Corbyn will be ousted. At the same time, it’s possible that the LibDems could secure a whopping 70 seats and SNP 60. Combined, this would be well over the 320 threshold needed to secure a second referendum under new Labour leadership, whether or not they make up a formal coalition or not. A few more seats from Green and Plaid Cymru will be a bonus.

Opinion: Hidetoshi Honda,
Senior Strategist,
European Treasury,
Mizuho Bank
Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd. (“Mizuho”) and represents the views of the author. It has not been prepared by an independent research department and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in any country or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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