Hardlines
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AZO AutoZone, Inc.
KMX CarMax, Inc.
FIVE Five Below, Inc.
FND Floor & Decor Holdings Inc
LESL Leslie's, Inc.
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc.
MCW Mister Car Wash, Inc.
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
HD Home Depot Inc.
TSCO Tractor Supply Company
VVV Valvoline Inc.
Broadlines
COST Costco Wholesale Corp.
WMT Walmart
TGT Target Corp
Consumer Internet
CHWY Chewy, Inc.
SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc.
W Wayfair, Inc.
Differentiated Product
Mizuho’s Hardlines, Broadlines, and Consumer Internet team focuses on finding alpha in under-the-radar and sometimes alternative data points, helping to cut through the noise of a cluttered and heavily covered consumer sector. Certain examples include identifying early and emerging trends, such as Home Depot’s implementation of trade credit, Chewy and even O’Reilly Auto Parts beginning to deploy automation within their supply chain networks, and quantifying the ultimate earnings power within Walmart’s new, high-margin business lines. We take a broader view of our coverage - particularly through the lens of the “Connected Consumer” - to identify structural winners in a highly dynamic and increasingly digital retail environment. Our work is complimented by a weekly publication “Bellinger’s Consumer Growth Curve” and through a combination of high-quality corporate access events across all market caps and timely expert calls.
Key Reports
• CHWY – Entering Beast Mode; Upgrade to Outperform
• WMT – Delivering the Complete Package – *Initiation*
• COST – Big and Bulky With a Valuation to Match – *Initiation*
• HD – Trade Credit as the Next Tool for the Complex Pro
• TSCO – Chicken Channel Checks Clucking Positive
• FIVE – Has FIVE Lost a Step? Expert Call Takeaways
• Consumer – Dynamic Reciprocal Tariff Workbook
• Thematic – The $1 Trillion AI (Aging Intelligence) Spending Opportunity
Notable Events
• WMT – Meetings at the ICR Conference (1/15) and Group Dinner in NY (5/27)
• HD – Virtual Meetings (10/11) and CFO Group Meeting (4/17)
• LOW – Virtual Meetings (7/11) and Upcoming HQ Visit (6/12)
• Headquarters Visits to ORLY, TSCO, and VVV
• HD – Expert Call – Trade Credit as the Next Tool for Home Depot (7/30)
• CHWY – Expert Call – Sizing the Benefits of Chewy’s App Ramp (1/30)
• FIVE – Expert Series – Fixing Five Below (10/4) + Pausing China Imports (4/25)
• AZO, ORLY – Expert Call – Mexico as the Next Growth Accelerator (5/9)
Analyst Bio
David joined Mizuho in September 2023 as a senior analyst in New York, covering Hardlines, Broadlines, and Consumer Internet. David joined from MKM Partners where he served as Executive Director and senior analyst covering the Consumer Growth and eCommerce verticals. He previously was a member of the #1 Institutional Investor ranked consumer team at Wolfe Research, serving as Vice President, and was recently named one of Business Insider’s Rising Stars of Equity Research. David holds Bachelor’s and MBA degrees, both from Fordham University’s Gabelli School of Business.